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Leasedrive VELO 2008 predictions
– seven key trends
19 December 2007
Leasedrive VELO, one of the UK’s largest independent privately-owned vehicle management groups in the UK, predicts seven key trends for 2008.
Commercial director, Roddy Graham said: “2008 will be a tough year, much tougher than people expect despite recent alarm bells. The impact of the sub-prime loans crisis in the USA has yet to fully wash over to our shores although we’ve had the first wave batter Northern Rock. No question, 2008 will see a credit squeeze which will have a knock-on effect for the fleet industry.”
1. Credit Crunch
“No surprises here - the sub-prime loans crisis will see a credit squeeze in 2008. Large and medium-sized contract hire companies should ride the storm comfortably providing they are ship-shape but some of the smaller players may find it harder to keep afloat. Car dealerships however will be hit as private new and used car buyers find it harder to obtain loans.”
2. Oil/Dollar Stability
“Despite the current weak US Dollar and high oil prices, analysts expect that global interests will be best served by a stronger US Dollar, which will recover some of its previous value during the course of 2008. As a consequence, oil prices, while close to the $101 barrel record of the late 70s, should drop once the dollar recovers its strength.”
3. Climate Change
“Governments will have to wake up to the biggest challenge mankind has ever had to face. The proof is now incontrovertible, with peer-reviewed research of several thousand top scientists agreeing that the probability of global warming being man-made is greater than 90 per cent and if nothing is done about it average temperatures could rise by as much as six degrees Centigrade by the end of the decade. The findings are endorsed by all the world’s major governments without qualification. Future government action, post-Bali, will impact our daily lives including driving.”
4. New Car Trends
“Given the above, vehicle manufacturers will bring out more sub-120g/km cars. Already they are under pressure to produce cars emitting on average less than 120g/km by 2012, a target they baulked at during the Frankfurt Motor Show without offering alternatives. With proposed congestion charging based on CO2 targets, there will be pressure from drivers for greener cars. The new retro-chic Fiat 500 is Car of the Year 2007. Expect more economical and smaller cars next year.”
5. Congestion Charging
“The charges will go up and more towns and cities will introduce congestion charging. Only two do so to date but the figure will increase dramatically. And, as mentioned, CO2-based charging has to be just around the corner too.”
6. AECOPS
“The future of AECOPs is uncertain and we need clarity from government. However, we believe AECOPS has its place in the fleet mix. After all, it’s all about consumer choice and some employees will want to opt for this route.”
7. Sweeteners?
“2008 will be a tough year and there is nothing to suggest otherwise. The only glimmer is that the Bank of England expects the following year could be better. What might make 2008 more palatable is if Prime Minister, Gordon Brown decided to hold a General Election in 2009. Then expect the introduction of some vote-catching measures late in 2008 that could sweeten the end of the year. The bitter pill, however, is if we entered a worldwide recession.”
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